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Chasing the Curve/Chapter 2
02

The Detective's Checklist

The 10 steps field epidemiologists follow, and how each one feeds the next

A real outbreak investigation almost never happens in a neat straight line; investigators loop back and repeat steps constantly as new clues arrive. This guide organizes the whole process into 10 steps (the Science Olympiad Disease Detectives wiki's condensed version of CDC's outbreak-investigation framework), and knowing their order (and why that order matters) is one of the most-tested skills in this event.

Why investigate at all? Five reasons

Control & preventionStop the current outbreak and keep it from happening again.
ResearchEach outbreak is a chance to learn more about a disease, its spread and its risk factors.
Public, political & legal concernsThe public and officials expect answers, and some cases involve legal duties.
Program considerationsShows whether existing prevention programs are working or need to change.
TrainingGives new epidemiologists real field experience.
1
Prepare for field work

Gather equipment, confirm authority to investigate, and arrange the right expertise and supplies before heading out.

2
Establish the existence of an outbreak

Compare the current case count to what's normally expected (the endemic baseline): is this really more cases than usual?

3
Verify the diagnosis

Confirm that the illness has actually been correctly diagnosed, using lab tests when possible: ruling out lab error or misdiagnosis.

4
Define & identify cases

Set clear, standard criteria (using person, place, and time: see Section 3) so every investigator counts cases the same way, then actively search for every case that fits and record consistent details (symptoms, exposures, dates) on each one. When testing contacts of a contagious person (a TB contact investigation, for example), work in concentric circles: test the closest, longest contacts first, and widen the circle only if many of them are infected.

5
Describe by time, place & person

Organize every case by time, place, and person to describe the outbreak's shape: this is where epi curves and maps come in.

6
Develop hypotheses

Based on the descriptive picture, propose specific, testable explanations: the likely agent, source, and mode of transmission.

7
Evaluate hypotheses

Run an analytic study (usually case-control or cohort) and calculate rates, risks, or odds to see if the data actually supports a hypothesis.

8
Refine hypotheses & carry out additional studies

If the numbers don't support the first idea, go back to the data (or the field) and generate a better one, and check that the conclusion lines up with laboratory findings (like matching pathogen fingerprints) and environmental inspections: looping back here is normal, not failure.

9
Implement control & prevention measures

Act on the findings: often this starts even earlier, as soon as a likely source is identified, and keep watching afterward (surveillance) to confirm the outbreak is truly over and to catch any flare-up quickly.

10
Communicate findings

Share results with health officials, the public, and the scientific community: usually through a written report.

Write These on Tests: CDC's 13 Steps

Test-taking line: On a test, write the CDC 13 steps. They include everything in the 10-step list, so you can't lose points by writing them, and some graders award a point for each of the 13.
CDC #CDC StepSciOly #SciOly Step
1Prepare for field work1Prepare for field work
2Establish the existence of an outbreak2Establish the existence of an outbreak
3Verify the diagnosis3Verify the diagnosis
4Construct a working case definition4Define & identify cases
5Find cases systematically and record information4Define & identify cases
6Perform descriptive epidemiology (time, place, person)5Describe by time, place & person
7Develop hypotheses6Develop hypotheses
8Evaluate hypotheses epidemiologically7Evaluate hypotheses
9Reconsider, refine and re-evaluate hypotheses8Refine hypotheses & carry out additional studies
10Compare and reconcile with laboratory and environmental studies8Refine hypotheses & carry out additional studies
11Implement control and prevention measures9Implement control & prevention measures
12Initiate or maintain surveillance9Implement control & prevention measures
13Communicate findings10Communicate findings
Steps aren't a one-way street. Control measures (step 9) often start the moment a likely cause emerges; investigators don't wait for step 10 to act if lives are at risk. Likewise, steps 6–8 frequently loop: hypothesis → test → refine → test again.

✓ Check Yourself

Q2Put these in order: Develop hypotheses, Verify the diagnosis, Communicate findings, Establish that an outbreak exists.
Establish that an outbreak exists → Verify the diagnosis → Develop hypotheses → Communicate findings. (Steps 2, 3, 6, and 10.)
Q3Give three of the five reasons health departments investigate outbreaks.
Any three of: control and prevention; research opportunity; public, political or legal concerns; program considerations; training.
Q4Which two CDC steps make up SciOly step 8?
CDC 9 (reconsider, refine and re-evaluate hypotheses) and CDC 10 (compare and reconcile with laboratory and environmental studies).